NFL picks: Week 4 best bets
1st October 2021

Intro by Doug Kezirian

Betting handle is almost always commensurate with fan interest, and Sunday Night Football is a prime example. Tom Brady’s much-anticipated Foxborough return is generating massive interest from the betting public.

“This will be the biggest volume regular season game of the year,” Caesars Sportsbook Vice President of Trading Craig Mucklow said. “There isn’t a primetime matchup all season of this magnitude and the betting volume will reflect that.”

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened as 4.5-point favorites but the line immediately jumped to -7. And that’s where is has stood all week but once the public arrives and kickoff nears, the lopsided action could drive it higher.

“It would probably cap at 7.5 because you will get the sharp money buying back at the 7.5. The public will drive the number up and the sharps will take the other side eventually,” Mucklow said. Brady and Belichick formed arguably the most impressive betting tandem of quarterback and head coach. They went 189-128-7 ATS (59.6%), which ranks second all-time. And now they face off for the first time, and Belichick is catching a full touchdown as a home underdog.


Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (4-8-2, 0-4 last week), Tyler Fulghum (3-6, 2-2), Joe Fortenbaugh (13-7-1, 4-1) and Anita Marks (64-35, 13-9), Stats & Information’s Seth Walder (13-17, 4-7) and Mackenzie Kraemer (0-2, 0-4), sports betting Deputy Editor David Bearman (8-3-1, 4-0) and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz (11-5, 3-2) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape.

Here are their best bets for Week 4 of the NFL season.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).

1 p.m. ET games

Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 54.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

Moody: Tyreek Hill has caught only eight of 11 targets for 73 receiving yards over the past two games. He’s due for an eruption, and the Eagles’ shaky secondary provides him a great spot to do so. Hill has averaged 113.7 receiving air yards and 85.7 receiving yards since 2020. His output in Week 4 should be more in line with his recent per-game averages.

Pick: Hill over 76.5 receiving yards (-115)

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