But bear with me, I think I could be on to something here.
The string of duck eggs next to GUARDIA SVIZZERA'S (5.45 Wolverhampton) name is admittedly a little concerning.
But he has had valid excuses for his run of defeats since completing a mid-summer hat-trick at Hamilton.
He has hated the Fibresand at Southwell the last twice, with the switch to the faster Tapeta at Wolves a big plus.
The five-year-old drops down into a Class 6 (his last win came at this level) from a Class 4, while he looks the only viable pace angle in the 7f contest.
Jack Out The Box – Monday's each-way pick
5.45 Wolverhampton: Guardia Svizzera: 'Takes a big drop in class and could get a soft lead'
The son of Holy Roman Emperor should get an uncontested lead from stall two, with talented claimer Ben Sanderson also taking off a handy 5lb.
This is as weak a race as shrewd trainer Roger Fell could have found for the gelding, who has slipped to a decent mark.
He is undoubtedly better than he has shown of late, and it will be a bitter disappointment if he can't go close.
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